Causal Impact of Cashback Campaigns on Post-Marketing Default Behavior in Consumer Lending

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Published: 2026-02-21
Keywords:
causal inference, marketing spillover, AB test, consumer lending, default risk

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Anna Sokolov
Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE University, Moscow, 109028, Russia
Dmitry Kuznetsov
Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE University, Moscow, 109028, Russia
Ivan Petrov
Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE University, Moscow, 109028, Russia

Abstract

This study examines how cashback marketing campaigns influence subsequent credit-risk outcomes. Using an AB testing framework implemented on a dataset of 640,000 loan applicants, the treatment group received a one-time cashback incentive, while the control group did not. Propensity-score weighting and double-machine-learning estimators were applied to isolate causal effects. Results show that campaign exposure increases short-term activation rates by 18.4% but also raises 90-day delinquency risk by 6.7 percentage points. Heterogeneity analysis reveals significantly larger default spillovers among new-to-bank customers (increase of 11.3 pp). A cost-risk decomposition suggests that while the campaign boosts revenue in the first month, cumulative losses surpass gains after 5.6 months. The findings highlight the risk implications of customer-acquisition incentives.

Article Details

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Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026)

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Causal Impact of Cashback Campaigns on Post-Marketing Default Behavior in Consumer Lending. (2026). Journal of Sustainability, Policy, and Practice, 2(1), 168-173. https://schoalrx.com/index.php/jspp/article/view/87

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